http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11332535/We-think-the-Paris-terrorists-were-offended-by-Charlie-Hebdos-satire.-What-if-were-wrong.html
Sunday, 11 January 2015
Friday, 9 January 2015
Let the Green Party join the debate
There is an air of absurdity to the Ofcom ruling that the Green Party are not a major political party but UKIP are.
Everyone seems to bring their own highly biased view of what should entitle a party leader to take part in a televised debate. Usually it is the qualification that ensures their own favoured party has a place and cuts off another party.
To my mind, the key determinant should be the number of candidates a party is standing. There was (and perhaps still is) a understanding that any party standing 50 candidates at a General Election is entitled to a party Political Broadcast.
The same principle should apply to the Leaders Debates. Not to do so gives a catch 22 situation where a party, particularly a smaller party is not given the opportunity to increase its support and then the failure to increase support is in turn is used as the justification for not giving it the Party the opportunity to increase support.
Everyone seems to bring their own highly biased view of what should entitle a party leader to take part in a televised debate. Usually it is the qualification that ensures their own favoured party has a place and cuts off another party.
To my mind, the key determinant should be the number of candidates a party is standing. There was (and perhaps still is) a understanding that any party standing 50 candidates at a General Election is entitled to a party Political Broadcast.
The same principle should apply to the Leaders Debates. Not to do so gives a catch 22 situation where a party, particularly a smaller party is not given the opportunity to increase its support and then the failure to increase support is in turn is used as the justification for not giving it the Party the opportunity to increase support.
A change is going to come
So here's the scenario - the Conservatives get 30% of the vote and 280 seats Labour get 31% and 260 seats, the SNP 50 seats and UKIP (15), Lib Dems (25) and Northern Ireland (18) and others get 60 between them. (plus the speaker)
People notice that Labour got more votes than the conservatives but fewer seats, UKIP and the Greens got more votes than the Lib Dem and SNP but fewer seats. Nearly 40% of people didn't vote Labour or Conservative yet they have less than 40 seats in England and Wales out of 572.
The Conservatives as the party with the largest number of MPs forms a minority Government, the 70% who didn't vote for them almost 85% of the electorate) get mightily pissed off. The new Labour Leader, stuffed by FPTP in Scotland, claiming an moral election victory because of winning more votes for the Tories and despairing of winning a majority announces support for electoral reform. Suddenly leaders of parties who got 70% of the vote want electoral reform. Alternate Vote has already been rejected so a proper proportional system is the only option.
People notice that Labour got more votes than the conservatives but fewer seats, UKIP and the Greens got more votes than the Lib Dem and SNP but fewer seats. Nearly 40% of people didn't vote Labour or Conservative yet they have less than 40 seats in England and Wales out of 572.
The Conservatives as the party with the largest number of MPs forms a minority Government, the 70% who didn't vote for them almost 85% of the electorate) get mightily pissed off. The new Labour Leader, stuffed by FPTP in Scotland, claiming an moral election victory because of winning more votes for the Tories and despairing of winning a majority announces support for electoral reform. Suddenly leaders of parties who got 70% of the vote want electoral reform. Alternate Vote has already been rejected so a proper proportional system is the only option.
when dreadful things happen
The awful and callous murder people in Paris in shocking and horrifying. It is heart breaking to witness the actions of a few humans.
Almost all death is sad, these deaths in Paris seem particularly sad as they were so unnecessary.
We have to remember though that according to the World Health Organization, 56 million people die each year, which is an average of about 153,424 people each day. The majority of people die peacefully but there will be many who die prematurely and often avoidably from murder, war, famine, unwanted illness or accident.
There are now over 7 billion people on the planet. It may be horrific to say it, but billions of us could die and human life would go on. What terrorist atrocity could ever
There are many responses to terrorist attacks - I think the best is for life to continue as normally as possible. Ensure maximum help is given to the victims, their families, friends and communities affected but pay tribute to them by not dancing to the terrorist tune. Terrorism that doesn't inspire terror has failed.
Almost all death is sad, these deaths in Paris seem particularly sad as they were so unnecessary.
We have to remember though that according to the World Health Organization, 56 million people die each year, which is an average of about 153,424 people each day. The majority of people die peacefully but there will be many who die prematurely and often avoidably from murder, war, famine, unwanted illness or accident.
There are now over 7 billion people on the planet. It may be horrific to say it, but billions of us could die and human life would go on. What terrorist atrocity could ever
There are many responses to terrorist attacks - I think the best is for life to continue as normally as possible. Ensure maximum help is given to the victims, their families, friends and communities affected but pay tribute to them by not dancing to the terrorist tune. Terrorism that doesn't inspire terror has failed.
music mestro please
Graham Nash said the magic of music was to write a song so personal everyone can relate to it.
Thanks to Jackson Browne, Suzanne Vega and Country Joe McDonald - you will never know how much you mean and meant to me but I am sure you would pleased if you knew.
Thanks to Jackson Browne, Suzanne Vega and Country Joe McDonald - you will never know how much you mean and meant to me but I am sure you would pleased if you knew.
Thursday, 1 January 2015
Nostradamus - right again!
One of my favourite books - Nostradamus the end of the Millennium prophecies 1992-2001
on the front cover makes the prediction 1992 - George Bush Re-elected. Good start as Bill Clinton was elected, not George Bush.
You might have missed the Californian Earthquake in 7.05pm on 8th May 1993 when San Diego disappeared beneath the Pacific Ocean. Worse than Krakatoa, masses of land from San Francisco in the North to the Lower California peninsula in the South are flooded and made useless. Los Angeles is destroyed, as is Hollywood - the geography of this part of the world will be permanently changed. A Tsuanmi (or more than on) hits Mexico but good news, after the quake the San Fransico Golden Gate Bridge is rebuilt.
Here are some other predictions that didn't happen:
Mrs Thatcher's re-election as Conservative Party leader in 1995, or indeed the Conservatives being in opposition in 1995. (or is it 1996)
Aliens on television in 1998
Fraud destroys the Swiss financial system in 1995
War between Greece and Turkey 1994-1998
Israel defeated in war by her Arab Neighbours 1995-1998
The Coronation of King Charles in 1992-93
The ordination of the first women priests into the Church of England in 1995 (tough luck it happened in 1994 !)
The curing of all cancers by sound waves, the reversing of the aging process, need I go on ?
on the front cover makes the prediction 1992 - George Bush Re-elected. Good start as Bill Clinton was elected, not George Bush.
You might have missed the Californian Earthquake in 7.05pm on 8th May 1993 when San Diego disappeared beneath the Pacific Ocean. Worse than Krakatoa, masses of land from San Francisco in the North to the Lower California peninsula in the South are flooded and made useless. Los Angeles is destroyed, as is Hollywood - the geography of this part of the world will be permanently changed. A Tsuanmi (or more than on) hits Mexico but good news, after the quake the San Fransico Golden Gate Bridge is rebuilt.
Here are some other predictions that didn't happen:
Mrs Thatcher's re-election as Conservative Party leader in 1995, or indeed the Conservatives being in opposition in 1995. (or is it 1996)
Aliens on television in 1998
Fraud destroys the Swiss financial system in 1995
War between Greece and Turkey 1994-1998
Israel defeated in war by her Arab Neighbours 1995-1998
The Coronation of King Charles in 1992-93
The ordination of the first women priests into the Church of England in 1995 (tough luck it happened in 1994 !)
The curing of all cancers by sound waves, the reversing of the aging process, need I go on ?
Predicting the General Election 2015
Predictions as all "psychics" know are best made after the event or with get out clauses or when stating the bleedin obvious.
However, by common consent the UK general election 2015 will be one of the most unpredictable for a long while - probably since 1945.
The most obvious prediction is a hung parliament - if the Conservatives failed to get a majority in 2010 against an unpopular Labour Party and unpopular Labour Prime Minister it is difficult to see how a grateful nation will reward five years of austerity and with more votes in 2015.
However, the British First past the post voting system makes predicting exact results very difficult if not impossible. A handful of votes can quite literally change the result in a number of seats.
In 2015 we face the following swings and roundabouts.
a) The biggest change is likely to be in Scotland where on current trends the SNP is likely to win 50 or more of the 59 seats.
b) The second change will be the near annihilation of the Liberal Democrats. Currently with 57 MPs they are likely to lose the majority of them. Some of these are the most difficult to predict. Lord Ashcroft has undertaken polls in many of the Lib Dem held seats (and a few they almost won) on the ordinary voting intention question the Lib Dems where ahead in none of them - only when a second question asking people to think about their own constituency did the Lib Dems get back ahead in some of the seats (more on this in another post) - taking an optimistic view the Lib Dems are currently set to lose 9 seats to the Conservatives, 9 to Labour and 9 to the SNP.
c) Labour ought to be winning seats form the Conservatives - on current levels of Labour support the will do so. Currenty they are on 34% to the Conservatives 31% compared to 29% and 36% respectively in 2010.
Fascinating when Labour got 28% of the vote cast in 1983 it got 209 MPs, 29% in 2010 netted then 258 MPs. The Liberal SDP Alliance got 26% of the vote in 1983 but got only 23 MPs.
d) UKIP is rather unpredictable - looking at the results from local and European elections and from constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft it is obvious that while UKIPP support is rather evenly spread, it does have some areas of strength. Seemly these are based more on the demographics of the seat and less on the amount of campaigning by UKIP. My hunch is that they will win about 12 seats mostly from the Conservatives but with a couple from Labour and the Lib Dems
e) The Green Party has only one MP and in unlikely to add many more - but in the increasingly fractured political system they could have the opportunity to establish themselves as a national force. They outpolled the Lib Dem in the election for Mayor of London and in the European elections. They have wisely decided to target just a few seats - I suspect their best chance of a win is in Bristol. What could be crucial for their future success is their share of the vote. Some opinion polls have hed them as high as 9 and 10% although 5-6% is more typical - 5-6% is big improvement on the 2% they usually poll.
However, by common consent the UK general election 2015 will be one of the most unpredictable for a long while - probably since 1945.
The most obvious prediction is a hung parliament - if the Conservatives failed to get a majority in 2010 against an unpopular Labour Party and unpopular Labour Prime Minister it is difficult to see how a grateful nation will reward five years of austerity and with more votes in 2015.
However, the British First past the post voting system makes predicting exact results very difficult if not impossible. A handful of votes can quite literally change the result in a number of seats.
In 2015 we face the following swings and roundabouts.
a) The biggest change is likely to be in Scotland where on current trends the SNP is likely to win 50 or more of the 59 seats.
b) The second change will be the near annihilation of the Liberal Democrats. Currently with 57 MPs they are likely to lose the majority of them. Some of these are the most difficult to predict. Lord Ashcroft has undertaken polls in many of the Lib Dem held seats (and a few they almost won) on the ordinary voting intention question the Lib Dems where ahead in none of them - only when a second question asking people to think about their own constituency did the Lib Dems get back ahead in some of the seats (more on this in another post) - taking an optimistic view the Lib Dems are currently set to lose 9 seats to the Conservatives, 9 to Labour and 9 to the SNP.
c) Labour ought to be winning seats form the Conservatives - on current levels of Labour support the will do so. Currenty they are on 34% to the Conservatives 31% compared to 29% and 36% respectively in 2010.
Fascinating when Labour got 28% of the vote cast in 1983 it got 209 MPs, 29% in 2010 netted then 258 MPs. The Liberal SDP Alliance got 26% of the vote in 1983 but got only 23 MPs.
d) UKIP is rather unpredictable - looking at the results from local and European elections and from constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft it is obvious that while UKIPP support is rather evenly spread, it does have some areas of strength. Seemly these are based more on the demographics of the seat and less on the amount of campaigning by UKIP. My hunch is that they will win about 12 seats mostly from the Conservatives but with a couple from Labour and the Lib Dems
e) The Green Party has only one MP and in unlikely to add many more - but in the increasingly fractured political system they could have the opportunity to establish themselves as a national force. They outpolled the Lib Dem in the election for Mayor of London and in the European elections. They have wisely decided to target just a few seats - I suspect their best chance of a win is in Bristol. What could be crucial for their future success is their share of the vote. Some opinion polls have hed them as high as 9 and 10% although 5-6% is more typical - 5-6% is big improvement on the 2% they usually poll.
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