How might the Lib Dem 8% poll rating break down ?

How might the Lib Dem 8% break down ?

Assuming the Lib Dems don't contest in Northern Ireland or the speakers seat:

Reasonably the base Lib Dem vote is 2% - even in there worst 126 seats they should average 2% of the vote.   At the other end the Lib Dems have 57 seats they hold, rounded to 63  for the maths and to reflect a few wild cards. In line with the Ashcroft polls I've gone for a 31% average in these seats - for some that might mean 20 -25%, almost certainly not enough to win to up to about 40% in other place pretty much a sure win.

To stand any chance of winning their held or target seats the Lib Dems will need to be polling abysmally in half the seats where they won't even keep their deposit.
But what of the seats the Lib Dems did well in last time but didn't win - thee seats where they polled above their 23% average? Things don't look good - in most of these seats the Lib Dems will do well to poll 5% and save their deposit. In the old days the Liberal party was famous for losing deposits but that was when you needed 12.5% to save it.

1% across 631 seats =1% national vote
126 seats where they get 2% adds 0.2%
126 seats where Lib Dems get 3% adds 0.4%
126 seats where Lib Dems get 4% - adds 0.6%
63 seats where Lib Dems get 5% - adds 0.4%
63  seats where Lib Dems get 7% adds 0.6%
63 seats where Lib Dems get 21% adds 2%
63 seats where Lib Dems get 31% adds 3%

Total Lib Dem vote nationwide 8.2%

Opinion polls in Lib Dem held seats

Lord Oakeshott commissioned opinion polls in the constituencies of 5 Liberal Democrat MPs - it is alleged by Nick Clegg and other that he did this to deliberately damage the party.

That is utter nonsense.   Lord Oakeshott was first asked by someone else to commission a poll in Vince Cable's constituency.  This he did and it showed the Lib Dems in second place - worrying you would think as Mr Cable had a majority of 12,140 or 20% of the vote.

Most people - me included would have it in our list of dead cert Lib Dem holds at the next general election.

http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2014/02/05/why-the-libdem-seats-will-win-30-35-seats-in-2015

It can't be stressed strongly enough the opinion polls are opinions polls - if they had shown that the Lib Dems were set to romp home in Twickenham - then how on earth would that damage the party.
If on the other hand the polls showed the Lib Dems doing badly, they ought to act as a warning to the Lib Dems not to be complacent.

The weird reaction to the polls is unfortunate - because one only has to look at the local election results in Twickenham (part of the London Borough of Richmond) to know the Lib Dems are in trouble, and the polls confirm they apply to the parliamentary seat.  Vince Cable was elected in 1997, if any Lib Dem is going to have an incumbency factor where years of hard work and high name recognition are going to help them keep a seat, it is surely someone like Vince Cable. As the Lib Dem general election strategy is based on such an approach, it is just as well to know now it is not likely to work.