In the rather awful EU membership Referendum draws top a close, the obvious point has not been made. This isn't a once in a lifetime opportunity to leave the EU. The UK can leave anytime Parliament votes to leave. So if there comes a time when the EU admits Turkey, creates an EU army and forces the UK to pay for a bailout of euro zone countries or any of the other 'predictions' the likes of Farage make - then the UK will be able to leave. Some might even think that would be a more intelligent time to have a vote.
Showing posts with label Referendum. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Referendum. Show all posts
Monday, 20 June 2016
Wednesday, 19 June 2013
No one wants a referendum on EU membership - so lets give them one
Get opinion pollsters to ask people if they want a referendum on UK membership of the EU and they will say yes, by an overwhelming majority. In fact ask them if they want a referendum on almost any issue and they will say yes by an overwhelming majority.
UK Polling Report - run by Anthony Wells, probably the most respected talker of sense on opinion polls (well he ought to be!) has only discovered one subject where more people didn't want a referendum than did want a referendum, and that was on whether the UK Monarchy should continue. His conclusion was that people were so sure they did want to keep the Queen they didn't want a referendum.
So who really wants a referendum on UK membership of the EU ? No one. People who want to leave the EU don't really want a referendum, they want top leave the EU. poeple who wnat to stya in the EU have no incentive to hold a referendum they could lose.
It is usually argued that people don't have a choice at elections time because all the main parties support staying in the EU. Actually, people do have a choice, If you want the UK to leave the EU all you have to do is vote for one of the minor parties that wish the UK to leave. The every fact that all three main parties want the UK to remain in the EU should tell people something important. It's not that all the parties are the same, but despite their differences they all think the UK is better off in. In fact as the EU has grown more and more countries have joined or want to get in - only one has left - Greenland ? Well, you get the idea if it was such a terrible thing why would so many parties in so many countries want their country to be members ? It's because unlike the public, they engage with the EU and understand it a lot better. They don't get their information about the EU from the Daily Mail, well if they do, they can check it and find out that there are more myths about the EU than about the Gods of ancient Greece and Rome.
It is sometimes argued referendum resolve issues, one way or the other. This is rarely true - the losing side is rarely content to accept the verdict and usually pushes for another vote. In 1983 Labour advocated leaving the ECC (as it was) soon the Conservatives might be led by a leader advocating exit - but everyone would do well to remember that leaving the EU is not a magic wand. Anyway - despite being on the whole opposed to referendums, because so many politicians have promised referendums on the EU and then wriggled out of their commitments - they electors deserve a referendum. I hope we can vote to stay in and get on with deciding what sort of EU we want.
UK Polling Report - run by Anthony Wells, probably the most respected talker of sense on opinion polls (well he ought to be!) has only discovered one subject where more people didn't want a referendum than did want a referendum, and that was on whether the UK Monarchy should continue. His conclusion was that people were so sure they did want to keep the Queen they didn't want a referendum.
So who really wants a referendum on UK membership of the EU ? No one. People who want to leave the EU don't really want a referendum, they want top leave the EU. poeple who wnat to stya in the EU have no incentive to hold a referendum they could lose.
It is usually argued that people don't have a choice at elections time because all the main parties support staying in the EU. Actually, people do have a choice, If you want the UK to leave the EU all you have to do is vote for one of the minor parties that wish the UK to leave. The every fact that all three main parties want the UK to remain in the EU should tell people something important. It's not that all the parties are the same, but despite their differences they all think the UK is better off in. In fact as the EU has grown more and more countries have joined or want to get in - only one has left - Greenland ? Well, you get the idea if it was such a terrible thing why would so many parties in so many countries want their country to be members ? It's because unlike the public, they engage with the EU and understand it a lot better. They don't get their information about the EU from the Daily Mail, well if they do, they can check it and find out that there are more myths about the EU than about the Gods of ancient Greece and Rome.
It is sometimes argued referendum resolve issues, one way or the other. This is rarely true - the losing side is rarely content to accept the verdict and usually pushes for another vote. In 1983 Labour advocated leaving the ECC (as it was) soon the Conservatives might be led by a leader advocating exit - but everyone would do well to remember that leaving the EU is not a magic wand. Anyway - despite being on the whole opposed to referendums, because so many politicians have promised referendums on the EU and then wriggled out of their commitments - they electors deserve a referendum. I hope we can vote to stay in and get on with deciding what sort of EU we want.
Friday, 21 September 2012
Welcome to AV elections - despite the referendum
Well who'd have thought it, in November everyone in England and Wales will get to vote in an Alternative Vote election. Hang on, I hear you cry, that was rejected in the referendum.
Well, it is the election for Police and Crime Commissioners which will be held under a variation of the Alternative Vote called the "Supplementary Vote".
How does it work ? In the election you will get the opportunity to cast two votes, the first for the candidate you support the most then you also get to cast a "supplementary vote" (you could literally call it an Alternative Vote) for another candidate which will be counted only if the candidate you voted for is eliminated.
After the first count takes place and if no candidate has scored 50% of the vote, the top two candidates remain in the election and the other candidates are eliminated. The ballot papers cast for the eliminated candidates are recounted with any "supplementary votes" going to the two remaining candidates are counted towards their total.
As an example, the first count result might be
Conservative 10000
Labour 9000
Independent 8000
Lib Dem 4000
Expolice officer 3000
Green 2000
UKIP 2000
Different Independent 1000
All the candidates apart from Conservative and Labour are eliminated and the "supplementary votes" a sort of second preference is counted.
You may have spotted the flaw in the system - if your favourite candidate is eliminated, you don't know when casting your supplementary vote who will be left in the contest. If you cast your supplementary vote for a candidate who is eliminated, it doesn't count.
The think is, with proper alternative vote, the one rejected in the referendum, you list candidates in order of preference, 1,2,3,4 etc until you don't care who win. It's a better system.
So who supports supplementary vote - well Labour introduced it for elections to Mayors of local councils and the Conservatives introduced it for elections to Police and Crime Commissioners - yet they both largely opposed Alternative Vote - weird or what ?
Well, it is the election for Police and Crime Commissioners which will be held under a variation of the Alternative Vote called the "Supplementary Vote".
How does it work ? In the election you will get the opportunity to cast two votes, the first for the candidate you support the most then you also get to cast a "supplementary vote" (you could literally call it an Alternative Vote) for another candidate which will be counted only if the candidate you voted for is eliminated.
After the first count takes place and if no candidate has scored 50% of the vote, the top two candidates remain in the election and the other candidates are eliminated. The ballot papers cast for the eliminated candidates are recounted with any "supplementary votes" going to the two remaining candidates are counted towards their total.
As an example, the first count result might be
Conservative 10000
Labour 9000
Independent 8000
Lib Dem 4000
Expolice officer 3000
Green 2000
UKIP 2000
Different Independent 1000
All the candidates apart from Conservative and Labour are eliminated and the "supplementary votes" a sort of second preference is counted.
You may have spotted the flaw in the system - if your favourite candidate is eliminated, you don't know when casting your supplementary vote who will be left in the contest. If you cast your supplementary vote for a candidate who is eliminated, it doesn't count.
The think is, with proper alternative vote, the one rejected in the referendum, you list candidates in order of preference, 1,2,3,4 etc until you don't care who win. It's a better system.
So who supports supplementary vote - well Labour introduced it for elections to Mayors of local councils and the Conservatives introduced it for elections to Police and Crime Commissioners - yet they both largely opposed Alternative Vote - weird or what ?
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