These are blogger Iain Dales predictions for the Lib Dem seats. I've annotated his words with my own view in bold and or brackets.
I think the LibDems can only be confident of winning 8 seats for definite. And these are…
Ceredigion
Leeds North West
North Norfolk
Orkney & Shetland
Ross, Skye & Lochaber (Only so long as Charles Kennedy is candidate)
Sheffield Hallam
Westmorland & Lonsdale (Only because of Tim Farron)
Yeovil
Let me make it clear, I don’t believe the LibDems will only win 8 seats, but these are the only ones I reckon they can be 100% sure of winning.
These are the seats I reckon they can be 100% sure of losing…
Bradford East (to Lab)
Brent Central (to Lab)
Burnley (to Lab)
Manchester Withington (to Lab)
Norwich South (to Lab)
Redcar (to Lab)
Solihull (to Con)
So that’s only 7 seats I reckon the LibDems are dead certain to lose. Which means if you add those to the seats they are dead certain to win, there are 42 which are in doubt. They fall into three categories…
LIBDEM PROBABLE/POSSIBLE HOLDS (20)
Argyll & Bute (SNP gain they got 50% in the Scottish Parl. elections to the Lib Dems 12%)
Bath (almost certain Lib Dem hold)
Bermondsey & Old Southwark
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
Bristol West
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
Cheadle
Cheltenham (almost certain Lib Dem hold)
Colchester (almost certain Lib Dem hold)
Edinburgh West (SNP gain)
Hazel Grove
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (Could be lost to the SNP)
Kingston & Surbiton
Lewes
North Devon
North East Fife
Southport (almost certain Lib Dem hold)
Thornbury & Yate (almost certain Lib Dem hold)
Torbay
Twickenham
POSSIBLE OR PROBABLE LOSSES TO LABOUR (5)
Birmingham Yardley (could stay Lib Dem on Ashcroft polls)
Cambridge
Cardiff Central
East Dunbartonshire
Hornsey & Wood Green
POSSIBLE OR PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE GAINS (16) (Certain in bold)
Berwick upon Tweed
Brecon & Radnorshire
Carshalton & Wallington
Chippenham
Eastbourne (Looks like a Lib Dem hold based on Lord Ashcroft Polling)
Eastleigh (More likely a Lib Dem hold or UKIP gain)
Mid Dorset & North Poole
North Cornwall
Portsmouth South
Somerton & Frome
St Austell & Newquay
St Ives
Sutton & Cheam (looks like a Lib Dem hold based on Lord Ashcroft Polling)
Taunton Deane
Wells
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
Gordon SNP Gain
Over all how did things stack up?
Dale predicts 8 Lib Dem definite, 20 Lib Dem probable holds, 7 certain losses and 21 probable losses. Apart from switching 3 seats in Scotland to Lib Dem losses and 3 seats in England to Lib Dem holds and expecting the Lib Dems to hold onto one seats (perhaps not Birmingham Yardley but one of the 5) from Labour, I think we are in agreement, except at the moment I would put a further 8 Lib Dem seats as definite Conservative gains. Of course these are predictions as things stand and things could change. The Lib Dem poll rating could double before polling day- I can dream, can't I ?
Showing posts with label Liberal Democrats. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Liberal Democrats. Show all posts
Monday, 19 January 2015
Sunday, 16 February 2014
David Steel from rising hope to elder statesman
David Steel - Rising hope to Elder Statesman - by David Torrance iSBN 9781849541404
Cabinet Ministers reach the top, if they are lucky they hang around a bit, get resuffled and hope to do some good. Few are remembered even at the time, let alone years later. There are exceptions, but even Prime Ministers come and go and fade from the memory. So David Steel deserves at least recognition of having a longer and more lasting impact on British politics than most others, without ever having 'reached the top'.
David Steel says he became a Liberal because he knew he wasn't Conservative and he wasn't Labour, so by elimination he became a Liberal. Positive commitment for Liberalism followed as he listend to others more committed.
Several things are really striking for David Steels Liberalism
1. His willingness to work with people of other parties and none to put Liberal values into action. Notably on abortion reform, anti-aparthied campaigns, on the EU referendum in 1975, the Lib/Lab Pact of 1977-78 and in the creation of the SDP and the SDP/Liberal Alliance
2. His liberalism was rooted in people being nicer to each other.
3. His willingness to stand up for what he believed, even if it was unpopular, e.g anti-aparthied,
David Steel will always be association with legalising abortion, the 1967 abortion Act. Actually, abortion was already legal in some circumstances, but still 40 women a year died from illegal abortions.
Steel wanted to take the Liberals back into Government - his willingness to build links with Liberals in all parties is a skill sadly lacking in Nick Clegg.
Cabinet Ministers reach the top, if they are lucky they hang around a bit, get resuffled and hope to do some good. Few are remembered even at the time, let alone years later. There are exceptions, but even Prime Ministers come and go and fade from the memory. So David Steel deserves at least recognition of having a longer and more lasting impact on British politics than most others, without ever having 'reached the top'.
David Steel says he became a Liberal because he knew he wasn't Conservative and he wasn't Labour, so by elimination he became a Liberal. Positive commitment for Liberalism followed as he listend to others more committed.
Several things are really striking for David Steels Liberalism
1. His willingness to work with people of other parties and none to put Liberal values into action. Notably on abortion reform, anti-aparthied campaigns, on the EU referendum in 1975, the Lib/Lab Pact of 1977-78 and in the creation of the SDP and the SDP/Liberal Alliance
2. His liberalism was rooted in people being nicer to each other.
3. His willingness to stand up for what he believed, even if it was unpopular, e.g anti-aparthied,
David Steel will always be association with legalising abortion, the 1967 abortion Act. Actually, abortion was already legal in some circumstances, but still 40 women a year died from illegal abortions.
Steel wanted to take the Liberals back into Government - his willingness to build links with Liberals in all parties is a skill sadly lacking in Nick Clegg.
Saturday, 3 September 2011
Charles Kennedy
Charles Kennedy - A Tragic Flaw by Greg Hurst ISBN -10:1-84275-176-X
The blurb on the covers says Greg Hurst understands the personalities and working of the Liberal Democrats better than any other political journalist... a fascinating and often dramatic, insider account of Charles Kennedy's leadership.
The first part of that is undoubted true, the second part rather undersells a book which covers Kennedy's entire life and career as well as providing a clear account of the history and workings of the SDP and the Liberal Democrats.
The tragic flaw is of course alcoholism, which very sadly. As a friends of Kennedy say - it is hard to tell when heavy drinking turns into alcoholism, even when Kennedy appeared to cut down on his drinking, his body was already less able to cope both with and without alcohol. That is the cruel dilemma for addicts.
The events in the book often seem like a different age, how quickly politics can move on. Even Kennedy resignation as leader is almost 6 years ago.
Kennedy emerges as a politician of great judgement and rare ability to connect with the public. Rather than
'lazy' as he was sometimes painted, he comes over a thoughtful and unwilling to close down options and seeking to avoid unnecessary conflict. Clearly he was not someone for detailed policy but that need not be a disadvantage for a party leader.
Little snippets - the revolting Labour party by-election campaigns - particularly at Birmingham Hodge Hill.
The huge frustration of leading a party which gained over a million more votes and yet won only a handful more seats. The huge reluctance of the Lib Dem MPs to be ruthless in getting rid of Kennedy,which made the process worse.
Despite his easy TV manner and chat/game show appearances, Kennedy was a shy person, disliked long formal meetings, sometimes lacking in self-confidence despite his ability to master a brief incredibly quickly.
The book almost argues that Kennedy fatal flaw was being elected an MP at 23, being a gifted politician who would have been a Cabinet Minister in any other party but who instead chose the SDP and Liberal Democrats, but in the end it concludes that failure to address his drinking until it was too late was the fatal flaw.
The blurb on the covers says Greg Hurst understands the personalities and working of the Liberal Democrats better than any other political journalist... a fascinating and often dramatic, insider account of Charles Kennedy's leadership.
The first part of that is undoubted true, the second part rather undersells a book which covers Kennedy's entire life and career as well as providing a clear account of the history and workings of the SDP and the Liberal Democrats.
The tragic flaw is of course alcoholism, which very sadly. As a friends of Kennedy say - it is hard to tell when heavy drinking turns into alcoholism, even when Kennedy appeared to cut down on his drinking, his body was already less able to cope both with and without alcohol. That is the cruel dilemma for addicts.
The events in the book often seem like a different age, how quickly politics can move on. Even Kennedy resignation as leader is almost 6 years ago.
Kennedy emerges as a politician of great judgement and rare ability to connect with the public. Rather than
'lazy' as he was sometimes painted, he comes over a thoughtful and unwilling to close down options and seeking to avoid unnecessary conflict. Clearly he was not someone for detailed policy but that need not be a disadvantage for a party leader.
Little snippets - the revolting Labour party by-election campaigns - particularly at Birmingham Hodge Hill.
The huge frustration of leading a party which gained over a million more votes and yet won only a handful more seats. The huge reluctance of the Lib Dem MPs to be ruthless in getting rid of Kennedy,which made the process worse.
Despite his easy TV manner and chat/game show appearances, Kennedy was a shy person, disliked long formal meetings, sometimes lacking in self-confidence despite his ability to master a brief incredibly quickly.
The book almost argues that Kennedy fatal flaw was being elected an MP at 23, being a gifted politician who would have been a Cabinet Minister in any other party but who instead chose the SDP and Liberal Democrats, but in the end it concludes that failure to address his drinking until it was too late was the fatal flaw.
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