Will anyone win the next General Election ?

Many commentators are expressing the view that many in both Labour and Conservative parties expect to lose the General Election.

It seems that key strategists in both parties are working to win on what is called a 35% strategy - that is that they should aim to win 35% of the votes cast at the General Election and that this may see them elected.

Whoever wins is likely to break some records.  Rarely have Governments been more popular at a second general election than they were at a first. Rarely has an opposition been as unpopular as Labour are now and gone on to defeat a Government.

The logic for the Conservatives is painful, if they couldn't win a majority facing an unpopular Gordon Brown after 13 years of Labour Government, what chance of them doing better are 5 years of cuts ? For Labour the reverse is true, here is a Government making cuts and yet, Labour are barely ahead in the opinion polls and their Leader has failed to impress the public.

Support for the Lib Dems could revive, specially if they choose a new leader, or it might collapse further as it did in the Scottish Parliament Elections.

Despite the current collapse of support for the Lib Dems, the rise of UKIP means that it entirely possible both Conservatives and Labour could get a smaller share of the vote in 2015 than they did in 2010.

That is deeply worrying for a democracy. 

Some commentators are predicting another hung Parliament - it may be that the Lib Dems could do better in areas where they have MPs and that a  surge for UKIP could mean the Lib Dems holding on to or even winning seats they might otherwise lose.   To be honest, I think both of these scenarios are overplayed. Both might help the Lib Dems slightly, but unless the base level of support for the Party rises, they face a return to 20 or so MPs.  Frankly that isn't enough to be part of a coalition nor to hold the balance of power even in a hung Parliament.  A minority Government by Labour or Conservatives, probably with the tacit consent of the other would be a near certainty. For the Lib Dems having gone from 53 MPs 25 or less would be traumatic. To risk another coalition and another halving of their MPs would be madness.

So who will win the General Election - not the public, who may wake up to a "democratic dictatorship" elected by around 1/3 of those who voted and perhaps 1/5 of those entitled to vote.

Eastleigh By-election result

The first thing to say is despite the stupidity of his actions over speeding points and letting down all his colleagues and supporters in the Liberal Democrats, and leaving them with a by-election in the worse circumstances, Chris Huhne played a huge part in the Lib Dems winning the by-election in Eastleigh. He was an assiduous MP who  worked very hard for all his constituents.  His record of action meant local people were more forgiving of his failings and

Secondly, the local Lib Dem Councillors are obviously both  popular and hard working.  It would be true to say a lot of people voted Lib Dem becausee of their local record than because of their national policies. Nothing wrong with that, people vote for all sorts of reasons. But it would be wrong to overstate the degree of Lib Dem success - it was a great result for them and the new MP might expect a bigger majority come the General Election.

UKIP did very well, given a longer campaign, they could have won, but oddly, the Conservatives have been campaigning non-stop in Eastleigh for a long while in

Labour are getting away with downplaying their result - their excuse, they were third and couldn't win - well, tell that to UKIP who started 4th with just 4% of the vote and almost won.   Labour did hold their share of the vote, which is all they need to do nationally at the general election to win if the Conservatives and Lib Dems are losing votes to UKIP.  Truly Labour don't have to win seats like Eastleigh, but it is quiet similar to seats like Southampton where Labour have MPs  or Portsmouth, where they used to have an MP.

UKIP did well getting the protest, none of the above vote - whether that will last, only time will tell.  A win would have been a political earthquake, a second place as Liberal know, is not.  Still UKIP have a lot of momentum on their side, so will will see where they go.   I expect them to do well in the County Council elections this year and top the poll in the Euro Elections in 2014,  but may still not elect a single MP at the General Election.  I expect a lot of the anti-politics, non of the above protest vote may reluctantly vote Lib Dems or Labour come 2015.  UKIP are not in control of events and it is the reaction of the other parties to UKIP success which will shape future politics.

The Conservatives did worst of all.  They are now split as a party. There is little scope for compromise - either you wnat to be in the EU or you want out, either you support same sex marriage or you oppose it, either you buy in to compassionate conservatism, green issues and or your tend to undeserving poor, anti-windfarm, nothing can be done about global warming, cut overseas aid, etc

By-elections rarely predict general election results, but occasionally they can shape them.  The Lib Dems will be happy if they can reduce the talk of them being wiped out at the General Election,  UKIP will hope for a place in the Leaders debate and 'i agree with Nigel Farage mania'  and no one calls a referendum on Europe.  Labour will be happy to watch UKIP take more votes from the Tories than from Labour and the Conservatives, well, they will split some more.  That is the trouble with insoluble problems, they are insoluble. Is it really 20 years since the Conservatives won a  majority at a General Election ?    If only that had supported reform of the voting system! Imagine the result in Eastleigh if voters had a second and third preference.

Labours plan for jobs - a spoof surely ?

Below direct from the Labour Party Website is their plan for jobs.

1. A £2 billion tax on bank bonuses to fund a real jobs guarantee for all young people out of work for a year and build 25,000 more affordable homes.

2. Bringing forward long-term investment projects schools, roads and transport - to get people back to work and strengthen our economy for the future.

3. Reversing the Tory-led Government's damaging VAT rise now for a temporary period - a £450 boost for a couple with children - immediate help for our high streets and for struggling families and pensioners.

4. A one year cut in VAT to 5% on home improvements, repairs and maintenance - to help homeowners and small businesses.

5. A one year national insurance tax break for every small firm which takes on extra workers - helping small businesses to grow and create jobs.
So basically - three one off measures ! one shuffling of spending and a new tax which is with the economic margin of error of not existing.

1.  The Government spends around £630 billion a year.  Another £2 billion is not a change.  You might note that the Government is spending £125 Billion more each year than it gets in Taxes - so taxing bankers bonuses - while welcome will not solve the fundamental problem.  One wonders why Labour didn't tax the bankers bonuses when they Labour were in power ?  25,000 more affordable homes would be welcome, but it is really a drop in the ocean compared to the need for affordable housing. Labours record on providing affordable Housing 1997-2010 was appalling, the worst of any Government since 1906. 

2. 'bringing forward' means - no new expenditure. Just money earmarked for spending in 2018 might in theory be spent in 2016 or 2017 - but it won't be spent in 2018.  In practice the coaltion governement has already tried to

3. Does cutting VAT boost growth ?  It would certainly cost the Government a lot of money and it might make a few families feel slightly better off for a short while - but it's hardly investment for the future.   The 'rule' is VAT rises under Labour - sound budgetary management - VAT rises under the coaltion - bad budgetary management.

4. Oh my goodness - a one year cut in VAT for home improvements - what will they think of next ? Do I really have to criticise this for people to see how small scale this is.

5. More tinkering - I imagine that a few businesses might take on staff - but mostly - it will not be the National Insurance that prevents businesses taking on staff and a one off, one year cut is not much of an incentive.

Left Luggage

Left Luggage - From Marx to Wilson by C. Northcote Parkinson.  C.Northcote Parkinson, if he is known at all today, is remembered for his classic book Parkinsons Law - which ought to be compulsory reading for anyone involved in business, politics or running any organisation.

This is a great book by a great author.  Although it was written in 1967, almost all of it remains relevant today.   The only real air of nostalgia is the idea that Labour MPs believed in something called "socialism"

It is a swift and entertaining history of socialist thought - and highlights it flaws, failings and limitations. He is particularly effective in criticising Trade Unions, the co-operative movement more for what they don't do than what they do.

Parkinson is slightly less effective in defending Conservatism - you get the feeling he is too nice a person to be other than a paternalistic what used to be called a one nation tory or tory-wet.

One question puzzles, what does the C in his name refers to ? and did he prefer to be called Northcote ?