http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/manchester-attack-salman-abedi-salafi-jihadism-wahhabism-isis-al-qaeda-islam-muslim-suicide-bombing-a7754301.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/manchester-terror-attack-salman-abedi-katie-hopkins-tweet-twitter-isis-a7752161.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-arms-deal-saudi-arabia-110-billion-911-terrorism-international-law-war-crimes-a7747076.html
Thursday, 25 May 2017
Thursday, 18 May 2017
Why torture doesn’t work
On Witches and Terrorists
By Michael Shermer
What about waterboarding? That’s “enhanced interrogation,” not torture, right? When the late journalist Christopher Hitchens underwent waterboarding for one of his Vanity Fair columns, he was forewarned (in a document he had to sign) that he might “receive serious and permanent (physical, emotional and psychological) injuries and even death, including injuries and death due to the respiratory and neurological systems of the body.” Even though Hitchens was a hawk on terrorism, he nonetheless concluded: “If waterboarding does not constitute torture, then there is no such thing as torture.”
Still, what if there’s a “ticking time bomb” set to detonate in a major city, and we have the terrorist who knows where it is— wouldn’t it be moral to torture him to extract that information? Surely the suffering or death of one to save millions is justified, no? Call this the Jack Bauer theory of torture. In the hit television series 24, Kiefer Sutherland’s character is a badass counterterrorism agent whose “ends justify the means” philosophy makes him a modern-day Tomás de Torquemada. In most such scenarios, Bauer (and we the audience) knows that he has in his clutches the terrorist who has accurate information about where and when the next attack is going to occur and that by applying just the right amount of pain, he will extort the correct intelligence just in time to avert disaster. It’s a Hollywood fantasy. In reality, the person in captivity may or may not be a terrorist, may or may not have accurate information about a terrorist attack, and may or may not cough up useful intelligence, particularly if his or her motivation is to terminate the torture.
In contrast, a 2014 study in the journal Applied Cognitive Psychology entitled “The Who, What, and Why of Human Intelligence Gathering” surveyed 152 interrogators and found that “rapport and relationship-building techniques were employed most often and perceived as the most effective regardless of context and intended outcome, particularly in comparison to confrontational techniques.” Another 2014 study in the same journal— “In terviewing High Value Detainees”—sampled 64 practitioners and detainees and found that “detainees were more likely to disclose meaningful information … and earlier in the interview when rapport-building techniques were used.”
Finally, an exhaustive 2014 report by the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence analyzed millions of internal CIA documents related to the torture of terrorism suspects, concluding that “the CIA’s use of its enhanced interrogation techniques was not an effective means of acquiring intelligence or gaining cooperation from detainees.” It adds that “multiple CIA detainees fabricated information, resulting in faulty intelligence.” Terrorists are real. Witches are not. But real or imagined, torture doesn’t work.
By Michael Shermer
As recounted by author and journalist Daniel P. Mannix, during the European witch craze the Duke of Brunswick in Germany invited two Jesuit scholars to oversee the Inquisition’s use of torture to extract information from accused witches. “The Inquisitors are doing their duty. They are arresting only people who have been implicated by the confession of other witches,” the Jesuits re ported. The duke was skeptical. Suspecting that people will say anything to stop the pain, he invited the Jesuits to join him at the local dungeon to witness a woman being stretched on a rack. “Now, woman, you are a confessed witch,” he began. “I suspect these two men of being warlocks. What do you say? Another turn of the rack, executioners.” The Jesuits couldn’t believe what they heard next. “No, no!” the woman groaned. “You are quite right. I have often seen them at the Sabbat. They can turn themselves into goats, wolves and other animals…. Several witches have had children by them. One woman even had eight children whom these men fathered. The children had heads like toads and legs like spiders.” Turning to the flabbergasted Jesuits, the duke inquired, “Shall I put you to the torture until you confess?”
One of these Jesuits was Friedrich Spee, who responded to this poignant experiment on the psychology of torture by publishing a book in 1631 entitled Cautio Criminalis, which played a role in bringing about the end of the witch mania and demonstrating why torture as a tool to obtain useful information doesn’t work. This is why, in addition to its inhumane elements, torture is banned in all Western nations, including the U.S., whose Eighth Amendment of the Constitution prohibits “cruel and unusual punishments.”What about waterboarding? That’s “enhanced interrogation,” not torture, right? When the late journalist Christopher Hitchens underwent waterboarding for one of his Vanity Fair columns, he was forewarned (in a document he had to sign) that he might “receive serious and permanent (physical, emotional and psychological) injuries and even death, including injuries and death due to the respiratory and neurological systems of the body.” Even though Hitchens was a hawk on terrorism, he nonetheless concluded: “If waterboarding does not constitute torture, then there is no such thing as torture.”
Still, what if there’s a “ticking time bomb” set to detonate in a major city, and we have the terrorist who knows where it is— wouldn’t it be moral to torture him to extract that information? Surely the suffering or death of one to save millions is justified, no? Call this the Jack Bauer theory of torture. In the hit television series 24, Kiefer Sutherland’s character is a badass counterterrorism agent whose “ends justify the means” philosophy makes him a modern-day Tomás de Torquemada. In most such scenarios, Bauer (and we the audience) knows that he has in his clutches the terrorist who has accurate information about where and when the next attack is going to occur and that by applying just the right amount of pain, he will extort the correct intelligence just in time to avert disaster. It’s a Hollywood fantasy. In reality, the person in captivity may or may not be a terrorist, may or may not have accurate information about a terrorist attack, and may or may not cough up useful intelligence, particularly if his or her motivation is to terminate the torture.
In contrast, a 2014 study in the journal Applied Cognitive Psychology entitled “The Who, What, and Why of Human Intelligence Gathering” surveyed 152 interrogators and found that “rapport and relationship-building techniques were employed most often and perceived as the most effective regardless of context and intended outcome, particularly in comparison to confrontational techniques.” Another 2014 study in the same journal— “In terviewing High Value Detainees”—sampled 64 practitioners and detainees and found that “detainees were more likely to disclose meaningful information … and earlier in the interview when rapport-building techniques were used.”
Finally, an exhaustive 2014 report by the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence analyzed millions of internal CIA documents related to the torture of terrorism suspects, concluding that “the CIA’s use of its enhanced interrogation techniques was not an effective means of acquiring intelligence or gaining cooperation from detainees.” It adds that “multiple CIA detainees fabricated information, resulting in faulty intelligence.” Terrorists are real. Witches are not. But real or imagined, torture doesn’t work.
Thursday, 10 November 2016
Wednesday, 19 October 2016
Wednesday, 21 September 2016
Tuesday, 20 September 2016
going up in smoke - time to stubb out cigs for good
Smoking rates across England are the lowest on record, health officials have said. Public Health England (PHE) said that 16.9 per cent of the population in England are smokers - the lowest level since records began.
The figures were released as the health body launched its annual Stoptober campaign to encourage the nation's remaining smokers to quit for the month of October. If people give up the habit for 28 days they are five times more likely to quit for good, PHE said.
In England there are now twice as many ex-smokers (14.6 million people), than current smokers (7.2 million), PHE added. Last year, out of the 2.5 million smokers who made a quit attempt, 500,000 people (20 per cent) were successful.
That's right, over 1/3 of smokers tried to quit last year. So much for the idea that smokers smoke out of freedom of choice, 80% of those trying to give up last year failed. Survey show over 90% of all smokers want to quit.
"Alongside unhealthy diet, smoking is the biggest cause of preventable early death in England, accounting for over 78,000 deaths a year. Quitters will soon see they have reduced blood pressure, easier breathing and better circulation. Stopping smoking is the best thing a smoker can do to improve their health."
Penny Woods, chief executive of the British Lung Foundation, said: "On top of this human cost, smoking has been estimated to cost the economy over £10 billion a year. We therefore support public health campaigns like Stoptober that motivate and support people to quit."
The figures were released as the health body launched its annual Stoptober campaign to encourage the nation's remaining smokers to quit for the month of October. If people give up the habit for 28 days they are five times more likely to quit for good, PHE said.
In England there are now twice as many ex-smokers (14.6 million people), than current smokers (7.2 million), PHE added. Last year, out of the 2.5 million smokers who made a quit attempt, 500,000 people (20 per cent) were successful.
That's right, over 1/3 of smokers tried to quit last year. So much for the idea that smokers smoke out of freedom of choice, 80% of those trying to give up last year failed. Survey show over 90% of all smokers want to quit.
"Alongside unhealthy diet, smoking is the biggest cause of preventable early death in England, accounting for over 78,000 deaths a year. Quitters will soon see they have reduced blood pressure, easier breathing and better circulation. Stopping smoking is the best thing a smoker can do to improve their health."
Penny Woods, chief executive of the British Lung Foundation, said: "On top of this human cost, smoking has been estimated to cost the economy over £10 billion a year. We therefore support public health campaigns like Stoptober that motivate and support people to quit."
Saturday, 3 September 2016
when I want your opinion ....
absolutely agree with this.
"In an internet age it is, at first glance, democratic to say that everyone is entitled to their own opinion. That is surely true. It is however a fatal step to then claim that all opinions are equal. Some opinions are backed by fact. Others are not. And those that are not backed by fact are worth considerably less than those that are."
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/sep/03/david-hare-nothing-but-the-truth-about-a-holocaust-denial
"In an internet age it is, at first glance, democratic to say that everyone is entitled to their own opinion. That is surely true. It is however a fatal step to then claim that all opinions are equal. Some opinions are backed by fact. Others are not. And those that are not backed by fact are worth considerably less than those that are."
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/sep/03/david-hare-nothing-but-the-truth-about-a-holocaust-denial
Tuesday, 16 August 2016
Monday, 1 August 2016
coalition could liberal democrats have handled it better?
The Liberal Democrat History Group is hosting a fringe meeting at the Liberal Democrat Conference with the rather odd title: coalition could liberal democrats have handled it better?
It is difficult to thin of a way in which they could have handed it worse ! Perhaps the one thing is that the Conservatives were very stupid to block reform of the House of Lords. Had the Clegg proposals gone through the Liberal Democrats would have lost most of their Lords. And the Parliamentary boundary changes would have gone through costing the Lib Dems 4 of the 8 seats the managed to cling on to.
http://www.liberalhistory.org.uk/events/coalition-could-liberal-democrats-have-handled-it-better/
It is difficult to thin of a way in which they could have handed it worse ! Perhaps the one thing is that the Conservatives were very stupid to block reform of the House of Lords. Had the Clegg proposals gone through the Liberal Democrats would have lost most of their Lords. And the Parliamentary boundary changes would have gone through costing the Lib Dems 4 of the 8 seats the managed to cling on to.
http://www.liberalhistory.org.uk/events/coalition-could-liberal-democrats-have-handled-it-better/
Timothy West - A moment towards the end of the play
A fantastic autobiography - just oozes with the voice and personality of Timothy West. Forth right thoughts on actors, managements, arts funding etc, a host of anecdotes.
My only disappointment was when it ended and as it was published in 2001, there are 15 more years to account for.
My only disappointment was when it ended and as it was published in 2001, there are 15 more years to account for.
Thursday, 7 July 2016
Leave it out - I never said that
This is from the official leave campaign website, campaign resources for the public to download.
It's even more explicit than the slogan on the side of the bus.
We know also that the intention was always to mislead people.
No Irony from Hannan as he tells us taking back control means doing what he tells us
Similar articles have been appearing in many places, after 40 years of not accepting the result of the 1976 referendum, Leave campaigners now tell us that people supporting remain should shut up and accept the result.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/07/daniel-hannan-instead-of-tantrums-remainers-should-accept-the-result-and-work-for-a-better-future.html
There are two main augments here, one the insinuation that seeking to overturn a result is not 'accepting' it and secondly that leave the EU means whatever the speaker wants it to means.
I do accept the result of the referendum, remain lost. Let's be honest though, I didn't get any say in how the referendum was conducted, what the question posed was or who led the debates on either side. It is reported that George Osborne interventions were met with disbelief amongst the electorate.
Not surprisingly. Similarly, many leave voters knew the leave campaign was telling lies, but at least they were "our liars".
As Mr Hannan himself has made clear, the remain campaign was based on "project fear", so what is his objection to another referendum where the debate can be based on project reality ?
There is nothing in the UK laws that prevent a second referendum on the leave terms offered. It would be inconvenient for the leave campaign and the Conservative Party to have another referendum, but that not actually a legal basis. Referendums in the UK (unlike most countries) are called at the whim of the Prime Minister (assuming he can get most MPs to back him/her) . There is no mechanism for say 1 million ordinary electors to call a referendum.
Leave campaigners made great play of taking back control and Parliament be sovereign (i.e. having the final say)
Others seem to argue that somehow another referendum is 'unsporting', what if it goes the other way, will we have another referendum after that brought about by disgruntled leave campaigners ? Well the answer is yes, that's the marvellous thing about democracy, one is allowed to change your mind.
The public supporter the Munich agreement in 1938, when it turned out not to be what it appeared, they supported war with Nazi Germany.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/07/daniel-hannan-instead-of-tantrums-remainers-should-accept-the-result-and-work-for-a-better-future.html
There are two main augments here, one the insinuation that seeking to overturn a result is not 'accepting' it and secondly that leave the EU means whatever the speaker wants it to means.
I do accept the result of the referendum, remain lost. Let's be honest though, I didn't get any say in how the referendum was conducted, what the question posed was or who led the debates on either side. It is reported that George Osborne interventions were met with disbelief amongst the electorate.
Not surprisingly. Similarly, many leave voters knew the leave campaign was telling lies, but at least they were "our liars".
As Mr Hannan himself has made clear, the remain campaign was based on "project fear", so what is his objection to another referendum where the debate can be based on project reality ?
There is nothing in the UK laws that prevent a second referendum on the leave terms offered. It would be inconvenient for the leave campaign and the Conservative Party to have another referendum, but that not actually a legal basis. Referendums in the UK (unlike most countries) are called at the whim of the Prime Minister (assuming he can get most MPs to back him/her) . There is no mechanism for say 1 million ordinary electors to call a referendum.
Leave campaigners made great play of taking back control and Parliament be sovereign (i.e. having the final say)
Others seem to argue that somehow another referendum is 'unsporting', what if it goes the other way, will we have another referendum after that brought about by disgruntled leave campaigners ? Well the answer is yes, that's the marvellous thing about democracy, one is allowed to change your mind.
The public supporter the Munich agreement in 1938, when it turned out not to be what it appeared, they supported war with Nazi Germany.
Wednesday, 6 July 2016
Iraq and Blair and Chilcot
It is typical that a war that wasted lives and billions of £ beyond comprehension and was built on errors should be addressed by a report that has wasted time, millions and told us nothing worthwhile.
I can almost believe Tony Bair acted with the best motives, I find it harder to believe that he didn't seek to mislead anyone, what I utterly disagree with is his assertion that it was worth it and he would do it all again.
The war in Iraq was a disaster from the start. The build up ignored the United Nations, the war itself destroyed Iraq so badly it has still not recovered and it unleashed death and destruction across the region and terrorist attacks across the world.
I can almost believe Tony Bair acted with the best motives, I find it harder to believe that he didn't seek to mislead anyone, what I utterly disagree with is his assertion that it was worth it and he would do it all again.
The war in Iraq was a disaster from the start. The build up ignored the United Nations, the war itself destroyed Iraq so badly it has still not recovered and it unleashed death and destruction across the region and terrorist attacks across the world.
Monday, 4 July 2016
£12.6 billion Gamble
According to the Gambling Commission, Britons lost about £12.6 billion in the 12 months to September 2015, an increase of almost 12 per cent on the previous year.
That is almost £500 for every household in the land
Monday, 27 June 2016
Boris the Spider
the web of deception. - Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive
Boris Johnston says:
"This year the US is projected to grow by 2.4 per cent, China by 6.5 pc, NZ by 2 pc, Australia by 2.5 pc and India by 7.5 pc. The Eurozone – 1.5 per cent."
He sometimes adds his joke, the only continent with lower growth than the EU is Antarctica
But what does GDP measure ? The size of the entire size of the economy. It can grow simply because the population grows. It can shrink because natural resources are depleted or fall in value. And % increases tell us very little when comparing countries with each other as opposed to comparing them with themselves in previous years.
Lets look at a more meaningful measure - GDP per person (also called per capita). Methodology (the way of working out the figures) varies, but roughly speaking, they are similar whatever method is used.
In 2015 they were:
UK $43,940 China $14,107 India $6,162
So the India economy grew by 7.5% in 2015, or $403 per person
If the UK economy grew by 1.5% , that would be $649 per person
In fact the UK economy grew by 2.2% in 2015, or $946 per person
Funny how even when the India economy growing at more than 3 times the % rate of the UK economy, in cash terms, the UK economy grew more than twice as fast as the Indian economy and the gap between the two countries has widened.
So Boris does this usual thing with liars, he doesn't tell a direct lie, so much as not tell the truth and deliberately gives a misleading impression. He claims if only we left the EU the UK could have a 7% growth rate like India. Well no it couldn't.
Similarly, will Boris be moving to China because their economy is booming ? No, because the average UK citizen is about 3 and half times better off than a citizen of China.
Setting aside the fact that Boris doesn't support the economic polices of China or even the USA, the truth is that he is again misleading people with bogus statistics.
Boris Johnston says:
"This year the US is projected to grow by 2.4 per cent, China by 6.5 pc, NZ by 2 pc, Australia by 2.5 pc and India by 7.5 pc. The Eurozone – 1.5 per cent."
He sometimes adds his joke, the only continent with lower growth than the EU is Antarctica
But what does GDP measure ? The size of the entire size of the economy. It can grow simply because the population grows. It can shrink because natural resources are depleted or fall in value. And % increases tell us very little when comparing countries with each other as opposed to comparing them with themselves in previous years.
Lets look at a more meaningful measure - GDP per person (also called per capita). Methodology (the way of working out the figures) varies, but roughly speaking, they are similar whatever method is used.
In 2015 they were:
UK $43,940 China $14,107 India $6,162
So the India economy grew by 7.5% in 2015, or $403 per person
If the UK economy grew by 1.5% , that would be $649 per person
In fact the UK economy grew by 2.2% in 2015, or $946 per person
Funny how even when the India economy growing at more than 3 times the % rate of the UK economy, in cash terms, the UK economy grew more than twice as fast as the Indian economy and the gap between the two countries has widened.
So Boris does this usual thing with liars, he doesn't tell a direct lie, so much as not tell the truth and deliberately gives a misleading impression. He claims if only we left the EU the UK could have a 7% growth rate like India. Well no it couldn't.
Similarly, will Boris be moving to China because their economy is booming ? No, because the average UK citizen is about 3 and half times better off than a citizen of China.
Setting aside the fact that Boris doesn't support the economic polices of China or even the USA, the truth is that he is again misleading people with bogus statistics.
Free Eye test
Above is a photo from http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/
I think it is part of an adult literacy campaign.
I think it is part of an adult literacy campaign.
Or perhaps Specsavers or just one of those optical
illusions that take the internet by storm,
Where some people can see the
hidden words such as “the lions share” “this is a mistake, I haven't authorised it” “No, not me I knew nothing about it" or "Nay, nay and thrice nay, not on your nelly will you see a penny of that £350 million"
Most worryingly, Michael Gove used to be in charge of UK Education !
Boris Johnston, is well known for his quote "It is an inverted pyramid of piffle. It is all completely untrue and ludicrous conjecture. I am amazed people can write this drivel." but of course that was about the allegation that he had had an affair, which turns out, he was lying about.
Sunday, 26 June 2016
When someone says your like Hitler, how do you react when they want you to give them a good deal ?
Boris Johnson, the possible next prime minister, caused genuine and grave offence by likening the European project to the ambitions of Hitler. His declarations that Brexit will trigger events that unravel the entire project is
The UK has next to no trade negotiators, and will need hundreds, to replicate the market access it currently has with 50 states around the world .
Britain has made clear it doesn’t want free movement – and so any deal on those grounds would be so impossibly fragile as to be a waste of time. Frankfurt and Paris would certainly like our banks. clearing houses that trade in Euros and generate billions for the Exchequer will have to be domiciled in the Eurozone.
A Canadian-style trade deal, that will set tariffs on imports and exports. That may be fine for German manufacturers. But Britain’s service economy will be cut up like an old car. British graduates are about to learn what it's like to use an Australian-style points system.
If a deal covering trade arrangements isn’t struck once the two-year period expires, Britain is simply released from the EU treaties and left on crippling WTO terms - something the Treasury terms a "severe shock scenario" and which it envisages would likely result in a cut in GDP of six per cent and increase unemployment by 800,000, not including the risks presented by emergency spending cuts, or the "tipping points" presented by the crystallisation of financial stability risks.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/the-eu-will-treat-britain-like-greece/
The UK has next to no trade negotiators, and will need hundreds, to replicate the market access it currently has with 50 states around the world .
Britain has made clear it doesn’t want free movement – and so any deal on those grounds would be so impossibly fragile as to be a waste of time. Frankfurt and Paris would certainly like our banks. clearing houses that trade in Euros and generate billions for the Exchequer will have to be domiciled in the Eurozone.
A Canadian-style trade deal, that will set tariffs on imports and exports. That may be fine for German manufacturers. But Britain’s service economy will be cut up like an old car. British graduates are about to learn what it's like to use an Australian-style points system.
If a deal covering trade arrangements isn’t struck once the two-year period expires, Britain is simply released from the EU treaties and left on crippling WTO terms - something the Treasury terms a "severe shock scenario" and which it envisages would likely result in a cut in GDP of six per cent and increase unemployment by 800,000, not including the risks presented by emergency spending cuts, or the "tipping points" presented by the crystallisation of financial stability risks.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/the-eu-will-treat-britain-like-greece/
Monday, 20 June 2016
It will be easier to leave the EU later than it will be to rejoin
In the rather awful EU membership Referendum draws top a close, the obvious point has not been made. This isn't a once in a lifetime opportunity to leave the EU. The UK can leave anytime Parliament votes to leave. So if there comes a time when the EU admits Turkey, creates an EU army and forces the UK to pay for a bailout of euro zone countries or any of the other 'predictions' the likes of Farage make - then the UK will be able to leave. Some might even think that would be a more intelligent time to have a vote.
Friday, 17 June 2016
Jo Cox - Tim Farron writes
This morning with my kids all I could think about was the family who’ve woken up with their lives changed forever.
Yesterday a mum, who left home to do her job to serve her constituents, was cruelly and brutally taken from them. Her husband and their children are in my thoughts and prayers.
When something terrible happens, I feel it. I am not one of those who shies away from emotion. And I, like so many others, am really feeling it today.
In Orlando, when all those people were massacred for simply being themselves, the hurt was overwhelming. And here in Britain, we have seen terror on our streets and lost an incredible woman.
Grief, sorrow, anger, frustration, confusion.
Jo Cox was a wonderful MP. Much will be written about her and she deserves all the tributes that are being paid.
Very few politicians had her vision and courage when it came to standing up for Syria and for refugees. She was really affected by their plight and when she spoke in Parliament I was deeply moved. She came to the Commons to make a difference, for something she believed in.
For too long we have allowed division and hatred to thrive. Vitriol has risen, and only yesterday we saw the shameful and sickening sight of England fans taunting child refugees, while public figures went out of their way to fan the flames of prejudice.
I am angry and upset at all those politicians, public figures and newspapers who wilfully stir up fear and hatred.
Political debate has become a nasty place where personal attacks, blaming foreigners, migrants, the poor, the different, have become palatable.
Where has all the hope, and optimism, and decency gone? It will be quoted many times over, but Jo’s words in her maiden speech couldn’t be clearer and couldn’t be more poignant – ‘we are far more united and have far more in common with each other than things that divide us.’
Today I won’t be campaigning in the referendum, but I’m going to be in my constituency doing what MPs do; I will be holding an open-air surgery.
This is how I, in my small way, can pay tribute to Jo.
This is what I encourage all people in politics to do today. Be in your constituency, be in your ward. Be part of your community. Reach out, lend a hand, support, listen, comfort and help. This is what we’re here to do.
Tomorrow I will begin again to make the positive case for Europe.
I am fed up with the anger and the hatred. It’s gone on for too long. I am a passionate believer that being part of Europe is better for our country, yet this debate has been suffocated by ego and dirty politics.
We must turn a corner.
Let this be a turning point for our country. When the world around us is fearful, confusing, and clouded, let us be the beacon of tolerance and hope.
Tim Farron
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