UKIP says every in the EU wants to live here so why have only 1 in 31,000 come this year ?

Just been reading UKIP propaganda saying "in the last 12 months immigration figures were 625,000"

 

As the following table from MigrationWatchUK (hardly known for a positive approach to immigration) shows:  Net migration, (immigration minus emigration) was 298,000 year ending September 2014. Why did UKIP use a misleading higher figure ? I can hardly guess.

Net migration form the EU over which UKIP say the UK has ‘no control’ was 162,000 out of 500,000,000 UKIP says have the presumptive right on entry ! (0.0003%, one in every 31,000)
One wonders what the other 499,838,000 are waiting for before coming over to steal “our” jobs whilst simultaneously ”living” on benefits.

 

Meanwhile, almost as many British people 137,000 went to live elsewhere in the world as came to live in the UK.  UKIP seem confused about whether they will cap immigration, will they cap emigration too ?

	All Citizenships	British	Non-British	EU	Non-EU
Immigration	624,000	82,000	543,000	251,000	292,000
Emigration	327,000	137,000	190,000	89,000	101,000
Net Migration	298,000	-55,000	353,000	162,000	190,000

So actually the number of people coming to the UK from the EU is 1/4 of the figure UKIP implies and given that 2-3 million British people who live in other EU countries will lose their right of residency if we leave the EU and be sent back to the UK, presumably net immigration that year will be 2-3 million.

UKIP - lacking the courage of their convictions

Why do UKIP want a referendum ? Why not say vote UKIP and the UK will leave the EU. Then if people wanted to leave the EU, they have a mechanism to achieve it. The Farage referendum is no better than Camerons. Neither actually tells us what a post referendum UK relationship with the EU would be like. Funny how the people suggesting the UK will play hardball with Scotland if it votes to leave seem to think the EU will have a happy divorce from the UK, instead of a bitter and destructive one. I think the EU would mind taking a few hits on its own short-term finances and trade with the UK if it sets an example to others. UKIP says it has a whole range of policies on other issues - which again begs the question - why not have a policy on the EU, a referendum is not a policy, it's not even British its a dreadful European device that undermines the parliamentary system.

UKIP - Didn't they say they were improving their candidate selection.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ummer-farooq-ukip-election-hopeful-3464369

Spoke to soon

Just days after posting on the life expectancy of a UKIP MEP, another one bites the dust.

Godfrey Bloom - once again showing the real face of UKIP called a room full of his own supporters "sluts" and they wonder why UKIp is less popular with women voters.

That's 8 UKIP MEPS down the plug hole in less than 8 years.

Will anyone win the next General Election ?

Many commentators are expressing the view that many in both Labour and Conservative parties expect to lose the General Election.

It seems that key strategists in both parties are working to win on what is called a 35% strategy - that is that they should aim to win 35% of the votes cast at the General Election and that this may see them elected.

Whoever wins is likely to break some records.  Rarely have Governments been more popular at a second general election than they were at a first. Rarely has an opposition been as unpopular as Labour are now and gone on to defeat a Government.

The logic for the Conservatives is painful, if they couldn't win a majority facing an unpopular Gordon Brown after 13 years of Labour Government, what chance of them doing better are 5 years of cuts ? For Labour the reverse is true, here is a Government making cuts and yet, Labour are barely ahead in the opinion polls and their Leader has failed to impress the public.

Support for the Lib Dems could revive, specially if they choose a new leader, or it might collapse further as it did in the Scottish Parliament Elections.

Despite the current collapse of support for the Lib Dems, the rise of UKIP means that it entirely possible both Conservatives and Labour could get a smaller share of the vote in 2015 than they did in 2010.

That is deeply worrying for a democracy. 

Some commentators are predicting another hung Parliament - it may be that the Lib Dems could do better in areas where they have MPs and that a  surge for UKIP could mean the Lib Dems holding on to or even winning seats they might otherwise lose.   To be honest, I think both of these scenarios are overplayed. Both might help the Lib Dems slightly, but unless the base level of support for the Party rises, they face a return to 20 or so MPs.  Frankly that isn't enough to be part of a coalition nor to hold the balance of power even in a hung Parliament.  A minority Government by Labour or Conservatives, probably with the tacit consent of the other would be a near certainty. For the Lib Dems having gone from 53 MPs 25 or less would be traumatic. To risk another coalition and another halving of their MPs would be madness.

So who will win the General Election - not the public, who may wake up to a "democratic dictatorship" elected by around 1/3 of those who voted and perhaps 1/5 of those entitled to vote.

No one wants a referendum on EU membership - so lets give them one

Get opinion pollsters to ask people if they want a referendum on UK membership of the EU and they will say yes, by an overwhelming majority. In fact ask them if they want a referendum on almost any issue and they will say yes by an overwhelming majority.

UK Polling Report - run by Anthony Wells, probably the most respected talker of sense on opinion polls  (well he ought to be!) has only discovered one subject where more people didn't want a referendum than did want a referendum, and that was on whether the UK Monarchy should continue.  His conclusion was that people were so sure they did want to keep the Queen they didn't want a referendum.

So who really wants a referendum on UK membership of the EU ? No one. People who want to leave the EU don't really want a referendum, they want top leave the EU. poeple who wnat to stya in the EU have no incentive to hold a referendum they could lose.

It is usually argued that people don't have a choice at elections time because all the main parties support staying in the EU.  Actually, people do have a choice, If you want the UK to leave the EU all you have to do is vote for one of the minor parties that wish the UK to leave.  The every fact that all three main parties want the UK to remain in the EU should tell people something important. It's not that all the parties are the same, but despite their differences they all think the UK is better off in.   In fact as the EU has grown more and more countries have joined or want to get in - only one has left - Greenland ?  Well, you get the idea if it was such a terrible thing why would so  many parties in so many countries want their country to be members ?   It's because unlike the public, they engage with the EU and understand it a lot better. They don't get their information about the EU from the Daily Mail, well if they do, they can check it and find out that there are more myths about the EU than about the Gods of ancient Greece and Rome. 

It is sometimes argued referendum resolve issues, one way or the other. This is rarely true - the losing side is rarely content to accept the verdict and usually pushes for another vote.  In 1983 Labour advocated leaving the ECC (as it was)  soon the Conservatives might be led by a leader advocating exit - but everyone would do well to remember that leaving the EU is not a magic wand.  Anyway - despite being on the whole opposed to referendums, because so many politicians have promised referendums on the EU and then wriggled out of their commitments - they electors deserve a referendum. I hope we can vote to stay in and get on with deciding what sort of EU we want.

Eastleigh By-election result

The first thing to say is despite the stupidity of his actions over speeding points and letting down all his colleagues and supporters in the Liberal Democrats, and leaving them with a by-election in the worse circumstances, Chris Huhne played a huge part in the Lib Dems winning the by-election in Eastleigh. He was an assiduous MP who  worked very hard for all his constituents.  His record of action meant local people were more forgiving of his failings and

Secondly, the local Lib Dem Councillors are obviously both  popular and hard working.  It would be true to say a lot of people voted Lib Dem becausee of their local record than because of their national policies. Nothing wrong with that, people vote for all sorts of reasons. But it would be wrong to overstate the degree of Lib Dem success - it was a great result for them and the new MP might expect a bigger majority come the General Election.

UKIP did very well, given a longer campaign, they could have won, but oddly, the Conservatives have been campaigning non-stop in Eastleigh for a long while in

Labour are getting away with downplaying their result - their excuse, they were third and couldn't win - well, tell that to UKIP who started 4th with just 4% of the vote and almost won.   Labour did hold their share of the vote, which is all they need to do nationally at the general election to win if the Conservatives and Lib Dems are losing votes to UKIP.  Truly Labour don't have to win seats like Eastleigh, but it is quiet similar to seats like Southampton where Labour have MPs  or Portsmouth, where they used to have an MP.

UKIP did well getting the protest, none of the above vote - whether that will last, only time will tell.  A win would have been a political earthquake, a second place as Liberal know, is not.  Still UKIP have a lot of momentum on their side, so will will see where they go.   I expect them to do well in the County Council elections this year and top the poll in the Euro Elections in 2014,  but may still not elect a single MP at the General Election.  I expect a lot of the anti-politics, non of the above protest vote may reluctantly vote Lib Dems or Labour come 2015.  UKIP are not in control of events and it is the reaction of the other parties to UKIP success which will shape future politics.

The Conservatives did worst of all.  They are now split as a party. There is little scope for compromise - either you wnat to be in the EU or you want out, either you support same sex marriage or you oppose it, either you buy in to compassionate conservatism, green issues and or your tend to undeserving poor, anti-windfarm, nothing can be done about global warming, cut overseas aid, etc

By-elections rarely predict general election results, but occasionally they can shape them.  The Lib Dems will be happy if they can reduce the talk of them being wiped out at the General Election,  UKIP will hope for a place in the Leaders debate and 'i agree with Nigel Farage mania'  and no one calls a referendum on Europe.  Labour will be happy to watch UKIP take more votes from the Tories than from Labour and the Conservatives, well, they will split some more.  That is the trouble with insoluble problems, they are insoluble. Is it really 20 years since the Conservatives won a  majority at a General Election ?    If only that had supported reform of the voting system! Imagine the result in Eastleigh if voters had a second and third preference.